Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Poll: Democrats lead in Republican-held districts

A bi-partisan poll of 48 congressional races believed to be competitive shows an even more uphill battle for Republicans in coming weeks than previously thought, RAW STORY has learned.

NPR commissioned the poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies.

With just three weeks until election day, the survey found Democrats running with a commanding lead in districts currently held by Republicans, and just 44% of voters planning to support the GOP.

In races for 38 seats currently held by Republicans, Democrats held a 4 point edge in named ballots. On a generic ballot, Democrats' lead increased to 11 points. Independents say they plan to vote for Democrats by a 20 point margin.

Voter turnout could also negatively impact Republicans for the first time in years, with 59% of voters planning to vote Democratic reporting that they were enthusiastic about voting, but just 43% of likely Republican voters indicating the same.

Dissatisfaction with Bush Administration leadership seems to be one key to the poll's findings. Even though 80% of those polled live in Republican districts, those who indicated that they "strongly disapprove" of the president led those who "strongly approve" by a two-to-one margin.

The war in Iraq seems to be driving discontent, with the subject being the primary concern of a clear plurality of voters. Three quarters of those naming Iraq as their top issue indicated that they will be voting Democratic.


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